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At its meeting next week, the Fed will probably hint at the…

At its meeting next week, the Fed will probably hint at the timeline of bond tapering before making a formal announcement in November

20210920
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Market Focus

US stocks declined on Friday, touching the lowest levels in four weeks. Investors are now evaluating the resilience of the global recovery amid concerns about the delta virus and risks from China. On top of that, Friday is the day of quarterly expiration of options and futures, which can create volatility. Oil slipped, while gold advanced.

The benchmarks, S&P 500, Dow Jones and NASDAQ both dropped on Friday. The S&P 500 was down 0.9% on a daily basis, while the index edged lower for a second day and erased its gains from earlier in the week. The material, utilities and technology sectors were the worst performing among all groups, dropping 2.06%, 1.59% and 1.52%, respectively. The NASDAQ, in the same way, finished in positive territory for a third day. The global stock market struggled to maintain optimism in the face of slower economic growth, high inflation, and likely pending changes in the Fed’s tapering plan.

From the angle of economic data, the University of Michigan’s preliminary sentiment index was released on Friday, showing that US consumer sentiment rose slightly but remained close to a decade low. High prices also resulted in deteriorated buying conditions. At its meeting next week, the Fed will probably hint at the timeline of bond tapering before making a formal announcement in November.

In Asia, stock markets were mixed as the debt crisis at China Evergrande Group continues. Casino stocks extended their losses amid tightening regulations in Macau.

Main Pairs Movement

The US dollar advanced on Friday, touching its highest level since August 27. The Dollar Index started to gain bullish momentum in the beginning of the American session and pushed higher after the U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment index was released. Consumer confidence in the US improved modestly in September with the Index rising to 71 from 70.3 in August. This reading came in slightly weaker than the market expectation of 72.2. The DXY index rose 0.4% on a daily basis. Market focus now shifts to next week’s FOMC meeting, as investors expect Fed to give more hints about the timeline of bond tapering.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD both declined on Friday amid stronger the US dollar across the board, losing 0.33% and 0.38% for the day respectively. The EUR/USD pair continued its slide, dropping to a fresh monthly low during American trading hours. The Eurozone Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) rose by 1.6%, in line with expectations. Meanwhile, the Core CPI for August (MoM) also edged higher by 0.3%. As for the Cable, Bank of England will announce their interest rate decision on September 23.

Gold advanced slightly on Friday. After climbing to a daily high during the European session. However, gold lost its traction and dropped below $1,750 amid renewed USD strength. The precious metal posted a 0.05% gain on a daily basis. WTI Crude Oil, on the contrary, dropped more than 0.9% on Friday.

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD (4-hour Chart)

GBP/USD is trading under the 1.3800 level, on the back foot after UK’s disappointing Retail Sales data, -0.9% in August. From a technical point of view, the intraday bias looks bearish as GBP/USD falls below the ascending trend line, indicating that the upside momentum has been overturned on the four- hour chart. The bearish move is expected to continue as the RSI has not reached the oversold territory, giving more rooms for the pair to extend further south. Bears might continue to head toward the next immediate support level at 1.3727.

Resistance: 1.3771, 1.3798, 1.3820

Support: 1.3727

EURUSD (4- Hour Chart)

EUR/USD is trading below the 1.1800 level, remaining pressured after the US Consumer Sentiment missed estimates in September. From a technical perspective, EUR/USD continues to trade negatively as the pair is still trading within the descending channel. At the same time, technicals are pointing lower since the pair failed to climb above the 20 and the 50 SMAs. The RSI on the four-hour chart is above 30, and is thus outside oversold territory, whilst the MACD is negative, lending supports to bears. That being indicated, EUR/USD is still on the downside. Nonetheless, the downside might face some obstacles as the pair has reached the lower bound of the Bollinger Bands, and is due for a pullback.

Resistance: 1.1806, 1.1894, 1.1965

Support: 1.1664

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

From the technical aspect, the price of gold is currently in a descending triangle on the daily chart, with the bottom support line at 1756.90 and the resistance at around $1800. As mentioned earlier, the price of gold formed support near $1753 after a sharp drop on Thursday, and the RSI indicator was in the oversold area. Therefore, the next trend of gold should be able to take a breather with its small rebound. On the other hand, on the 1-hour chart, based on Fibonacci indicators, the short-term resistance is at the level of $1,765.58, while the next resistance is at the level of 1,778.62. All in all, the long term movement for the gold is on the downside.

Resistance: 1763.51, 1837.13, 1928.22

Support: 1689.89, 1598.80

20210920
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US Core Retail Sales data was released on Thursday, retail sales rose…

US Core Retail Sales data was released on Thursday, retail sales rose 0.7% last month, boosted by back-to-school shopping and child tax credit payments

20210917
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Market Focus

US stock declined on Thursday after swinging between gains and losses. Expiration of options and futures will be on Friday, which usually results in high volume and volatility. After seven months of gains, the equity market became choppier midway through September, but some market strategists believe that this is actually quite normal from a historical, seasonal standpoint.

The benchmarks, S&P 500 and Dow Jones, both dropped on Thursday. S&P 500 was down 0.2% on a daily basis, as the index edged lower a day after it posted its biggest gain since August on Wednesday. The material and energy sectors were the worst performing among all groups, dropping 1.09% and 1.06%, respectively. The NASDAQ, on the contrary, finished in positive territory for a second day.

On top of that, US Core Retail Sales data was released on Thursday, retail sales rose 0.7% last month, boosted by back-to-school shopping and child tax credit payments. The data unexpectedly increased in August, easing some concerns about a sharp slowdown in economic growth. The news has bolstered investor expectations for next week’s policy meeting, as well as expectations that US central bank will start to taper stimulus sooner. However, the weekly jobless claims increased to 332K, higher than what the market had expected. Therefore, the market fluctuated as investors digested the impact of mixed economic data. Market focus has now shifted to next week’s FOMC meeting.

In Asia, the stock market was surrounded by selling pressure as the debt crisis in China Evergrande Group keeps fermenting. Furthermore, casino stocks in Macau extended their losses amid the government’s tightening regulations on casino firms.

Main Pairs Movement

The U.S. core retail sales figures for August was due earlier today, and the news quickly sent shockwaves across foreign exchange markets. August retail sales increase by 1.8%, month over month, excluding car sales. The robust August spending figures went against fears of the Delta variant hampering economic recovery, providing a much-needed boost of confidence in the U.S. economy. Majority consumer spending in August has shifted from the service industry to furniture, groceries, hardware, and online purchases.

Most currencies dropped against the dollar as demand for the Greenback soared. Cable trended lower and dropped through our previously estimated support level of 1.3801. USD/CAD gained as demand for the dollar soared, but the pair is still consolidating between 1.2589 and 1.268 with no clear down or up trend. AUD/USD, also, fell through our previously estimated support level of 0.731 as the dollar gained strength.

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD (4-hour Chart)

Cable traded higher during the European trading session as the U.K. cabinet reshuffle passed smoothly. However, as the robust U.S. retail figures and American trading hours arrived, the dollar gained strength and started to drag Cable down. Cable tumbled as much as 0.53% at the beginning of the American trading session. The strong dollar brought Cable beneath our previously estimated support level of 1.3801 and the pair is trading at 1.378 as of writing. Speculators will be eyeing next week’s FOMC meeting as FED bond tapering is seemingly imminent.

From a technical point, GBP/USD reversed yesterday’s upward trend amid a resurgence of dollar demand due to healthy August retail sales figures. Cable has broken through our previously estimated support level and is continuing to trend downwards as of writing. Nearest support for the pair sit at 1.3755. However, the U.K retail sales figures for the month of August are due tomorrow and could provide some upward momentum for bulls and the pound if figures return better than estimated results. RSI is currently sitting at 37.74, suggesting some under buying in the market. Cable has broken ground below the 50, 100, and 200 day SMA; furthermore, the pair is edging close to the lower bound of the bollinger bands.

Resistance: 1.3905, 1.3937, 1.3958

Support: 1.3755, 1.368, 1.3604

USDCAD (4- Hour Chart)

USD/CAD trended downwards at the beginning of the trading day, but quickly recovered from the session low of around 1.26, and gained more than 0.5% once the American trading session began. Strong dollar demand has brought the pair to challenge our estimated resistance level of 1.2708, helping the pair regain all of the lost ground since Monday. Speculators, however, should still be mindful that the Loonie is highly dependent on global export and commodity prices, thus indications of international economic slowdown could drag the Loonie lower still and propel USD/CAD to higher levels. The Canadian federal election will take place next Monday, and polls are showing a slight favor to Justin Trudeau’s Liberal party.

From a technical point, USD/CAD is still contained by our previous resistance estimates, but the pair is edging closer to the 1.27 price level. RSI is currently sitting at a marginally over-baught level of 55. USD/CAD has reached the upper bounds of the bollinger bands after today’s dollar rally, and the pair is currently trading above the 50, 100, and 200 day SMA.

Resistance: 1.2708, 1.2834, 1.2912

Support: 1.2589, 1.252, 1.2494

AUDUSD (4- Hour Chart)

The Australian Bereau of Statistics revealed that the unemployment rate fell to 4% in August, compared to 4.6% in July. However, the decline in the unemployment rate is attributed to the lowered participation rate in August. Despite a better unemployment rate in August, the lowered participation rate raised concerns and bearish sentiment for the Aussie dollar. AUD/USD began the day trending lower, and, once the U.S. retail sales figures were released, the pair trended even lower and broke through our previously estimated support level of 0.731. However, as of writing, AUD/USD has successfully defended the 0.7285 support level and the pair is beginning to stabalise around that price level.

From a technical point, RSI indicates 55.38, suggesting neutral buying sentiment. AUD/USD successfully defended our previously estimated support level of 0.7285, but the pair dropped through the 0.731 support level. Currently, the pair trades at the lower bound of the Bolliner bands, and the pair is trading below the 50, 100, and 200 day SMA.

Resistance: 0.7379, 0.7468

Support: 0.7285, 0.7222, 0.7117

20210917
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Stocks declined after that China’s economy was damaged in August from rigorous…

Stocks declined after that China’s economy was damaged in August from rigorous virus controls and tight curbs on property

20210916
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Market Focus

US stock advanced on Wednesday, recording the highest gain in three weeks. The stock market benefitted from the fact that concerns about a slowdown in economic growth has eased. Crude oil and treasury bond yields both rose. Gold price, on the contrary, declined on Wednesday.

The benchmarks, S&P 500, Dow Jones and the NASDAQ all rose on Wednesday. S&P 500 posted a 0.9% gain on a daily basis as the index closed in positive territory for only its second time in eight trading sessions. The energy and industrial sectors were the best performing among all groups, rising 3.81% and 1.12%, respectively. The energy sector was supported by the bullish momentum witnessed in US crude oil prices as US inventories are running low with storms disrupting US production. Therefore, it’s a rapidly tightening market for crude oil.

On top of that, the US CPI data released on Tuesday could be seen as a reduction of pressure on the Fed to start pulling back on loose monetary policies, increasing the uncertainties about the timeline of bond tapering. Despite this, investors are still worried about the rising costs on economic reopening and the impact of the Delta variant around the world.

In Asia, stocks declined after reports showed that China’s economy was damaged in August from rigorous virus controls and tight curbs on property. Casino companies fell on China regulation concerns, as Macao plans to tighten the regulations on casino firms.

Main Pairs Movement

The lingering effects of a weaker-than-expected U.S. CPI figure are still being felt today in foreign exchange markets. Both the U.S. 10-year and 30-year treasury yield fell on Wednesday. The Canadian CPI rose more than 10% in August to 4.1%, compared to 3.7% in July. However, the BOC still remains dovish and believes that inflation should be transitory. The U.K. CPI for August beat estimates and showed a 0.7% growth, month over month.

Cable repaired some of the losses from the previous trading day and is trading at 1.38446, as of writing. Better-than-estimated CPI data has helped boost the pound. The Loonie rose against the dollar as the Canadian CPI also reported better-than-estimated results. The Aussie, however, fell against the Greenback as Covid and inflationary concerns continue to plague any upward movement from the pair AUD/USD.

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD (4-hour Chart)

The U.K. CPI for August set the record for the largest ever recorded increase in the CPI National Statictic 12 month inflation series. U.K. core CPI rose to 112.1, compared to 108.8 in August of 2020. The service industry, including restaurants, hotels, recreation and culture, and food and non alchoholic beverages, is the major driver for August price rises. Cable began the day trending lower, but, as U.K CPI data released, the pair quickly gained more than 0.4% to hit the session high of 1.38537. Speculators will be eyeing the BOE policy meeting, which will happen on the 23rd of September.

On the technical front, GBP/USD reversed yesterday’s downward trend and gained more than 0.2% during the European trading session. Despite falling through our previous support level estimate, Cable found support at the 1.38 price level and was met with resistance at around the 1.383 price level. RSI for the pair sit at 49.7 as of writing. GBP/USD has trended towards the middle of the bollinger bands and is trading above the 50 day SMA.

Resistance: 1.3905, 1.3937, 1.3958

Support: 1.3813, 1.3755, 1.368

USDCAD (4- Hour Chart)

USD/CAD gained during the European trading session, but slipped once the August CPI data released and the American trading session began. Post CPI release, the Loonie gained as much as 0.4%, and dragged USD/CAD to a session low of around 1.263. The BOC maintains its view that price surges in August remains transitory, but stronger-than-expected CPI figures will tempt BOC to keep forward guidances unchanged, especially in light of poor growth figures. Speculators will be eyeing the housing starts figure, which will be released on Thursday, and the U.S. initial jobless claims report, also releasing on Thursday. The Loonie is also riding the strong tailwind fueled by increasing oil prices and commodity prices.

On the technical front, USD/CAD is still contained by our previous resistance estimates. Strong selling pressure still exists around the 1.2708 price level, evident from the pair’s quick price movement reversal after closing in on that resistance level. RSI sits at 45.55, suggesting some under buying. The pair sits at the lower half of the bollinger bands and is trading below the 50, 100, and 200 day SMA, as of writing.

Resistance: 1.2708, 1.2834, 1.2912

Support: 1.2589, 1.252, 1.2494

AUDUSD (4- Hour Chart)

The Australian unemployment rate will be due tomorrow, with analysts estimating a 4.9% target. The central bank of Australia has committed to tapering plans – reducing-bond buying purchases from 5 billion AUD per week to 4 billion AUD per week, but extending quantitative easing measures into February of 2022. The Delta variant is still a strangling factor on Australia’s economy, as confirmed cases have continued to rise over this month. AUD/USD continued its downward trend as trading began for the day, but was able to gain back some group once the American trading session began.

On the technical front, RSI indicates 42.2, suggesting weaker buying sentiment. AUD/USD successfully defended our previously estimated support level of 0.731, but the pair met resistance at around 0.7335. Currently, the pair trades at the upper bound of the Bolliner bands, trading below the 50, 100, and 200 day SMA.

Resistance: 0.7379, 0.7468

Support: 0.731, 0.7285, 0.7285, 0.7222

20210916
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